Determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980

Prof. Dr. Zeno Enders, Heidelberg (Principal Investigator)

Prof. Dr. Gernot Müller, Tübingen (Principal Investigator)

Christopher Zuber M.Sc., Heidelberg


In this project, we aim to contribute to the Priority Programme "Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" by investigating the determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980. We will put a special focus on how institutional change and crises a) alter the way how expectations are formed, and b) impact on the pass-through of expectations into economic actions. Our principal data source is the EBDC Business Expectations Panel (BEP) of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center (EBDC) in Munich.



Enders, Zeno / Hünnekes, Franziska / Müller, Gernot J. (2019): Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 10 (September), Berlin

Conrad, Christian/ Enders, Zeno/ Müller, Gernot: Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel, in: Ökonomenstimme (16 Dec. 2021). URL:

Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas (2022). "The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations.European Economic Review, 143, 104015.