Determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980

In this project, we aim to contribute to the Priority Programme "Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" by investigating the determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980. We will put a special focus on how institutional change and crises a) alter the way how expectations are formed, and b) impact on the pass-through of expectations into economic actions. Our principal data source is the EBDC Business Expectations Panel (BEP) of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center (EBDC) in Munich.

Publications:

Enders, Zeno / Hünnekes, Franziska / Müller, Gernot J. (2019): Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 10 (September), Berlin

Conrad, Christian/ Enders, Zeno/ Müller, Gernot: Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel, in: Ökonomenstimme (16 Dec. 2021). URL: https://www.oekonomenstimme.org/artikel/2021/12/die-ezb-setzt-ihre-glaubwuerdigkeit-aufs-spiel/

Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas (2022). "The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations." European Economic Review, 143, 104015.

News and upcoming events

In our latest working paper, Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas, and Geoff Kenny assess the value of survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Find it here.

In our latest working paper, Jonas Dovern considers the utility of data from an online survey of German consumer expectations as an indicator of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty. Find it here.

In our newest working paper, Ulrike Malmendier considers the ways in which lived-experiences play a role in shaping our economic decision-making and beliefs, both among regular people and economic experts alike. Find it here.

In light of the ECB's recent announcement that it will improve its forecasting models, Christian Conrad points to the limitations of inflation forecasts in the FAZ.

Sebastian Teupe's book on the German inflation between 1914 and 1923 is out. Find it here!

In light of the current vacancies in the German Council of Economic Advisers, Lino Wehrheim takes a look at past debates about appointments to the Council in the FAZ.

In our newest Working Paper, Lino Wehrheim traces 70 years of Federal German public discourse via a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective of Der Spiegel. Find it here.

The workshop "Economic Narratives in Historical Perspective" has taken place from April 28-29 at GHI London. For more details click here.

In our newest Working Paper, Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Andreas Neumayer and Jochen Streb consider the heterogeneity of savers' inflation expectations during the German industrialization. Get it here!

Lino Wehrheim's article "The Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media" has been published in the Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Find it here.

You can find older announcements in our news archive.

Experience & Expectation ·
Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour

PP 1859

Priority Programme
1859

Priority
Programme
1859

Determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980