Determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980

Prof. Dr. Zeno Enders, Heidelberg (Principal Investigator)

Prof. Dr. Gernot Müller, Tübingen (Principal Investigator)

Christopher Zuber M.Sc., Heidelberg

 

In this project, we aim to contribute to the Priority Programme "Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" by investigating the determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980. We will put a special focus on how institutional change and crises a) alter the way how expectations are formed, and b) impact on the pass-through of expectations into economic actions. Our principal data source is the EBDC Business Expectations Panel (BEP) of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center (EBDC) in Munich.

 

Publications:

Enders, Zeno/Hünnekes, Franziska/Müller, Gernot J. (2019): Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 10 (September), Berlin

Conrad, Christian/ Enders, Zeno/ Müller, Gernot: Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel, in: Ökonomenstimme (16 Dec. 2021). URL: https://www.oekonomenstimme.org/artikel/2021/12/die-ezb-setzt-ihre-glaubwuerdigkeit-aufs-spiel/

Enders, Zeno/Kleemann, Michael/Müller, Gernot (2021). Growth Expectations, undue Optimism, and short-run Fluctuations, in: The Review of Economics and Statistics 103, 905-921.

Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas (2022). "The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations.European Economic Review, 143, 104015.

Enders, Zeno/Hünnekes, Franziska/Müller, Gernot J. ( (2022). Firm Expectations and Economic Activity, in: Journal of the European Economic Association 20, 2396-2439.

Born, Benjamin/Enders, Zeno/Müller, Gernot/Niemann, Knut (2022). Firm expectations about production and prices: Facts, determinants, and effects, in: Ruediger Bachmann, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw (eds.), Handbook of Economic Expectations (Chapter 12), Elsevier.

Born, Benjamin/Enders, Zeno/Müller, Gernot/Menkhoff, Manuel/Niemann, Knut (June 2023). Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 17768, Working Papers of the PP 1859, No. 43.

Conrad, Christian/Enders, Zeno (August 2023), "Die Prognosen der Europäischen Zentralbank", in: Ruperto Carola. Forschungsmagazin der Universität Heidelberg, Ausgabe 22, 25-31.

Born, Benjamin/Dovern, Jonas/Enders, Zeno (2023). Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News, in: European Economic Review 154, 104440.

 

Work in Progress:

Roberto A. De Santis and Christopher Zuber (2021). Firm Investment During Recessions and Recoveries.