Annual Conference 2019

The Plenary Conference of 2019 opened the second funding period of the PP 1859. The new researchers presented their projects, and coordination and common work were discussed. See below for a detailed programme:




Wednesday, 09th 10 October 2019


13:30    registration and coffee

14:00    welcoming (Nützenadel/Streb)

14:15    SPP 1859: themes, methods and cooperation (Nützenadel/Streb)

15:45    coordination und central funding, informationen from DFG (Köhler)


16:30 coffee break

project presentation


SECTION I: Investment, Risk and Financial Institutions


17:00    More than a Feeling. Media Sentiment as a Mirror of Investors´ Expectations at the Berlin Stock Exchange, 1872-1930 (Burghardt/Spoerer)

17:30    Country Insurance across 200 years: the Role of Experiences and Expectations (Trebesch)

18:00    Belief Foundations and Waves of Optimism and Pessimism: Response to Historical Trends, Disaster Risk and Personal Experiences (Faia)

18:30    The Transformation of Money. A Transatlantic History of 'Money Illusion' during the Gold Standard Era, 1870s-1920s (Teupe)


19:00    reception/buffet (forum of the Humboldt Graduate School)



Thursday, 10th October 2019


SECTION II: Macroeconomic Expectations and Saving


09:00    Heterogeneity in macroeconomic expectations: the role of individual historical experiences, local conditions, and socio-economic characteristics (Conrad/Dovern/Krüger)

09:30    Exploring the experience-expectation nexus in macroeconomic forecasting using computational text analysis and machine learning (Döpke/Fritsche/Pierdzioch)

10:00    Personal Experience and Savings Behaviour (Lehmann-Hasemeyer/Streb)

10:30    The Anticipation of Expectations - Financial Institutions and the observation of saving behaviour in West Germany and the United States (Hesse)


11:00     coffee break


SECTION III: Entrepreneurial Expectations and Economic Development


11:30    Managing Expectations. Consultancy and Corporate Decision-Making in Germany after 1965 (Nützenadel/Schöttler)

12:00    Determinants and effects of business expectations in Germany after 1980 (Enders/Müller)


12:30     Lunch-break (forum of the Humboldt Graduate School)


13:30    Sky-High expectations - how politics, crisis and knowledge transfer shaped the multinational airline Air Afrique, 1961-1990 (Huber)

14:00    “The industry of the world´s optimists." Tourism as a development strategy in Eastern Africa, 1950s-early 1990s (Lerp)


SECTION IV: Public Policy and Economic Expertise

14:30    Creating Expectations (Kriwoluzky/Schularick)

15:00    Origins and Consequences of Regional Identity. Evidence from Historical Differences in Political Instability and Fragmentation among German States (Wahl)


15:30     coffee break


16:00    Competition as the subject of forecasts. Forming expectations of the European Commission as a supranational regulatory authority for merger control in transnational markets, 1958-2003 (Pahlow)

16:30    Expecting Limits and Limiting Expectations - Economic Expertise, Environmental Policy and Consumption, 1970-2000 (Graf)


17:00    Discussion time: research outlines and formats

(with keynotes by Louis Pahlow and Alexander Kriwoluzky)

19:00    Dinner (Restauration Berlin 1840, Neue Bögen am Hackeschen Markt, Am Zwirngraben 8-10, 10178 Berlin)

Freitag, 11.10.2019


09:00   Changing Tables. A workshop-brunch about cooperation (Alex Brasserie, Panoramastraße 1A, 10178 Berlin)


12:00   End of the event