Heterogeneity of Macroeconomic Expectations 2021

Workshop @FAU in Nuremberg, 7 – 8 October 2021

Evidence based on survey and experimental data suggests that expectations of market participants about key economic variables are heterogeneous. This holds across households, across firms, and across investors. In light of this finding two fundamental questions arise. First, what are the determinants of expectations and expectation formation?

Second, what are the implications for economic theory? The workshop will bring together researchers that analyze macroeconomic expectations from both an empirical and a theoretical perspective. Its aim is to discuss implications of empirical findings regarding the heterogeneity of economic expectations for (macro-)economic modelling. At the same time, we expect theory to provide guidance for further empirical explorations.

The central question of the priority program is to analyze whether the formation of expectations differs across time periods and individual subjects. In particular, it analyzes how historical or biographic experiences of subjects might influence their expectations. These questions are currently also discussed in macroeconomics. Given that the projects in the priority program mainly focus on empirical issues, the workshop provides the priority program community with exposure to recent economic theory on expectation formation.

We invite submissions from the priority program in particular those that address the following topics:

1. Empirical evidence on heterogeneity (and the underlying causes) of macroeconomic expectations.

2. Empirical tests of existing theories of expectation formation in the macroeconomic context.

3. New theories of expectation formation.

We currently organize this workshop as an on-site event in Nuremberg. 

 

Organization committee: Jonas Dovern (Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg) Zeno Enders (Heidelberg University) Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen