Survey Data and Probabilistic Expectations 2022

Heidelberg, June 2nd-3rd

The workshop is about the econometrics of macroeconomic survey data, with a focus on probabilistic expectations. While the relevance of uncertainty for economic decision making is undisputed in theory, empirical analyses and surveys have long focused on point expectations that cover a person’s ‘best guess’ of the inflation rate, say. Recognizing the limitations of this approach, various recent surveys cover probabilistic expectations, such as the subjective probability distribution of the inflation rate. The workshop covers methodological aspects and applications, such as:

  • Design of probabilistic expectations surveys
  • Stylized facts of probabilistic expectations
  • Testing for biases in probabilistic expectations
  • Predictive content of subjective uncertainty for economic decisions
  • Probabilistic expectations and historical experiences
  • Expectations and monetary policy


Keynote speakers: Kajal Lahiri (University at Albany) and Michael Weber (Chicago Booth)


Participation: Members of the Priority Programme who would like to participate are asked to contact Lora Pavlova via email ( by March 31, 2022.


Organization: The workshop is organized by the research groups of Christian Conrad (Heidelberg University) and Fabian Krüger (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), and is financially supported by the DFG Priority Programme 1859 ‘Experience & Expectation · Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour’.


Logistics: The workshop will be held in person at the Marsilius-Kolleg (Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.1, Heidelberg). Accommodation, lunch, dinner and travel costs of all workshop participants will be covered by the DFG Priority Programme. The workshop program will start around noon on June 2 and end around 4 pm on June 3.


Refer also to the Call for Papers. To obtain further deitails see the conference programme.